Recent ABS figures show the national herd were still in liquidation at 53%, well above the breakeven of 47%. The liquidation of the southern herd is the driver behind the overall high female kill. Southern female kill is at near-record levels of 64.1%, and continues to highlight the large losses in Southern Australia, which have mainly impacted the Angus herd. Even though conditions improved in the south, NSW has seen the most improved conditions with Victoria having a good June and July rainfall but still requiring more rain.
Northern Australia (QLD) remains in a holding pattern with neither contraction nor rebuild.
As stated, this period resembles the 2008 to 2012 period, where an aggressive rebuild occurred in the south and a mild rebuild in the north. I see a similar situation occurring in the next two years.
~Simon Quilty
