Significant Brazilian exports to the US late last year have seen ‘the other’ US quota allocation of 65,000 MT fill at a record rate, with almost 86% filled in the first three weeks of January already. The full allocation is expected to be filled by the end of this week or next.
The question arises as to what volume is likely to be shipped into the US out of quota from Brazil this year. Estimates for last year are close to 96,000 MT out-of-quota, with an additional 65,000 MT shipped in quota. It should be noted that out-of-quota beef was entered at 26.4% duty. Estimates for this year are expected to be much lower due to rebuilding in the US and higher global market prices as India’s exports contract.
Another important fact is that this 65,000 MT that is now being entered is occurring in a rising market, meaning the Brazil meat held in bonded warehouses has already been committed (sold), such is the concern by US end-users about the shortages of lean meat in 2025. It augurs well for stronger US imported prices going forward for 2025.