China’s imported beef stocks have fallen to a two and a half year low, down 23% since the start of this year which points to improving demand. Much of this stock has been dominated by Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay beef exports, with much of the chilled product moving straight from vessels into commerce after being cleared. The split between Australian grassfed and grain-fed beef exports is almost 50/50, with almost 80% frozen across each category due to the limited cold-chain systems internally in China.
Domestic beef numbers are expected to decline by 1% according the to USDA WASDE report in August. In the report they state China’s increase in culling dairy cows in 2023 and 2024 has exacerbated the situation and put greater downward pressure on beef prices.
The WASDE report outlines that China’s demand for low-end beef products is likely to grow as consumers look to “consumption downgrading” and that trend is expected to extend through 2025. Demand for lower-priced beef or value cuts is forecast to grow in 2025 which will partially offset lower demand for high-end beef. Imported beef particularly from South America will play an important role in China in providing cheaper beef alternatives.
~Simon Quilty