Agriculture plans are shifting in China, propelled by Trump’s trade war with China. These shifts have been occurring for years as China has sought to reduce reliance on their key geopolitical foe. This chart shows the declining share of U.S. agriculture in Chinese imports. A key factor in this has been deals with Brazil on corn and soybeans.
This chart points out China’s incredible surge in agriculture imports, evidence that the self-sufficiency plans of the past 20 years have not been adequate to stave off imports.
But the largest factor driving Chinese agriculture imports is not their domestic production, it is their rising incomes. Per-capital real (inflation adjusted) incomes in China have grown nearly 6-fold from the U.S. dollar equivalent of $2,122 in 2000 to $12,378 in 2023. Rising incomes is a big driver of food imports as diets shift to more global products.
Expect to see China continue to scour the earth in search of new agriculture suppliers. But note that Trump’s Phase One deal led to record U.S. agriculture shipments to China. Will there be a “Phase Two”?
