Global commodity markets are a complicated web of supply, demand, logistics, and politics. With a heavy emphasis on POLITICS. And the tangled web of political measures in global markets is expanding.
Here’s my running list of recent trade restrictions and restorations globally and implications for global meat and poultry. It is not a complete list, but shows some of the recent developments:
Sep 2026: Brazil warned that EU will impose restrictions on all animal products due to antibiotic protocols. Brazil is the #1 meat and poultry supplier to the EU, shipping US$1.7 billion last year (and up 65% YTD thus far in 2026). Expect some sharp negotiations.
July 2026: U.S. Mexico Canada Trade Agreement Review. These three countries traded US$16 billion in meat and poultry last year. The review is unlikely to disrupt trade but could result in more scrutiny among trade.
May 2026: China reopens to U.S. beef. This move will spur shipments of offal (omasum and other items) as well drive higher prices for chuck rolls, short plates, and short ribs. Japanese and Korean importers are the losers in this situation as they will see higher purchase prices from increased competition. And later-year Chinese demand could be brisk as Australian and Brazilian beef inventories run short after their quotas are filled in June.
Nov 2025: Spain discovers African Swine Fever (ASF), sets off a series of trade restrictions. The varying responses are reshaping global pork trade. Korea regionalized for Spain granting them access to cheap and abundant Spanish pork (mainly bellies). Japan is holding firm to their zero-tolerance policy restricting all Spanish pork. The U.S., Canada, and Brazil are seeing increased Japanese orders as a result. Watch for further spreading which could restrict additional regions from export.
Dec 2025: China announces a new beef import quota at 4% below 2025 import levels. This move has reshuffled the global beef deck. Instead of expecting tightened U.S. beef imports, we now see a surge in beef available for import. Brazil and Australia have likely already shipped the volumes that will trigger the safeguard creating big surpluses soon in both countries. China has built big inventories, straining importer cash flows.
Dec 2025: China imposes anti-dumping tariffs on EU pork over EU actions against Chinese electric vehicles. This adds more price pressure to the pork-heavy EU region. ASF bans have backed up supplies. But weak Chinese demand was already leading to reduced EU pork shipments.
May 2025: Brazil receives FMD-Free status Without Vaccination from the World Organization of Animal Health. This has fueled an aggressive world tour for Brazilian beef and pork. While some in Brazil suggest it was too soon and disease risks remain, their exporters have found great success with pork to Japan and other new markets. They are now seeking beef access to key markets like Japan and Korea.
May 2025: China bans poultry from Brazil over HPAI. This led to temporary market disruptions but was lifted in November 2025.
fSome Key Thoughts:
- Note that President Trump’s tariffs have had very little direct impact on global meat and poultry. There was a temporary escalation of tariffs and retaliation by China last year, but that was short lived. And also some temporary U.S. beef import tariffs that were lifted. As we’ve suggested since Trump’s election: Panic slowly…
- Note how many of these above involve the largest global meat exporter (Brazil at US$31 billion last year) and the world’s largest importer (China at US$21 billion last year).
- There are MANY lesser political trade issues involving political restrictions all over the world (India, Europe, Africa, and beyond). Many of these involve protectionist trade restrictions that use quotas, tariffs, import licenses and/or sanitary restrictions to restrict trade.
~Brett Stuart