One unique trend in today’s global markets is the simultaneous alignment of herd rebuilding across many countries. 
Some supply countries are more a advanced than others in their rebuild, while others are just about to occur. This also has broad implications for global meat and poultry.
The year-to-date figures for Paraguay and Uruguay are good examples of these countries already in a rebuilding phase with YTD kills down -27% and -19% respectively, with cattle prices trading at near-record levels across both countries.
The 10-year outlook shows the most significant declines in 2026 and 2027, when rebuilding in many countries will coincide, and heifer retention tightens supplies over that two-year period. As stated, this is unique in that so many supply countries’ cattle cycles have come into sync, but as we move into the back end of the decade, differing rates of rebuild and competition for land use will result in a limited rebuild by 2035.
When looking at the different rebuild rates and the separation of quality and commodity beef-supply countries, it becomes clear that rebuild rates are likely to vary across categories.
The recovery in the Bos Indicus herd (Brahman-based genetics) or commodity-type cattle looks to be significant over the next 10 years, with numbers in 2035 almost regaining where they were last year at 149 million head slaughter, compared to the Bos Taurus slaughter, which is expected to fall 11%, with an overall reduction in the quality herd.
The reason for the contraction of the Bos Taurus herd (British/Continental-based genetics) is competition for land from other agricultural uses, urban sprawl, and the pressures of meeting GHG-reduction targets. Bos taurus is generally produced in high rainfall areas and on more productive soils. On the other hand, less pressure will be placed on the arid regions of the world where Bos Indicus tends to thrive. Over the next 10 years, quality cattle will become more expensive and more niche-focused, with more cattle entering grain-fed programs.
Bottom Line: Global cattle cycles in sync pose serious implications across the global meat and poultry sectors going forward
~Brett Stuart