Corn prices in the U.S. in 2024 went below the cost of production for many producers. That was based on a near-record crop and limited demand from China’s switch to Brazil and a stronger U.S. dollar.
China’s big reported (but unverifiable) stocks confuse analysis, and since they are not an exporter, we have excluded their data in the chart below. This chart suggests that in the coming crop year corn stocks as a percentage of consumption is historically low, suggesting higher prices could be coming.
