The value of global meat imports totaled US$86 billion in 2023, down from the record $92 billion in 2022. That value doubled since 2010 as rising incomes and populations have met with logistical advances for perishables globally. As an importer, China remains on top, despite a 12% increase in U.S. meat imports forecast this year. I expect China will be number one for the next decade and likely longer.
China’s peak in recent years came from surging pork demand after their heavy swine herd liquidation due to African Swine Fever (ASF) in 2019. But it also came from surging demand for imported beef which rose over 500% from 2017 to 2022 to US$18 billion. Beef import values declined to US$14 billion last year, but will post another record tonnage in 2024. The recent Chinese declines came as China’s hog farmers over supplied their market post-ASF and beef prices dropped on weaker Chinese demand.
This massive global industry is held together by politics, economics, and social pressure (in THAT order). Global meat trade is nothing new; pickled beef and cured bacon were crossing the Atlantic Ocean in the late 1860s. And politics have long been a key component of that trade through tariffs, health restrictions (see Britain’s “cattle plague” in 1865 from imported beef), and various other measures (sanitary, dumping, plant approvals, etc). Global meat politics has now evolved into a much more complex web. Processing plants must comply with a raft of foreign countries’ standards, veterinary drug residues are tracked in the ‘parts per billion’ range, disease standards vary and change constantly, and most recently, climate policies are being proposed as a means to regulate meat trade.
So here’s an update on global meat politics:
- China recently relisted five Australian beef plants after being out of the market for years. They also delisted a major U.S. beef plant over feed additive residues (ractopamine) at levels far below global standards. After the EU announced tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle imports, Chinese officials quickly launched a dumping investigation of EU pork. China still imposes a 25% retaliation tariff on U.S. pork, following the Trump steel tariffs of 2018.
- Brazil recently declared themselves ‘Free of Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) Without Vaccination’ a coveted status that unlocks more overseas markets. However, foreign importers only consider that recognition when declared by the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), not the exporting nation. Brazil will submit their application for that status in August.
- European nations (including the EU and U.K.) continue to hold fast to policies restricting meat and poultry from North America. And new policies are being proposed to protect against Brazilian meat from the Amazon basin as a measure to push back on deforestation.
I’m not just picking on those three. Most nations have some type of political measures in place when it comes to meat and poultry imports. But these are the big factors today. And with continued political and social changes I’m sure there are more politics ahead. – Brett Stuart