The other important change in the beef and sheepmeat sector has been the vulnerability of certain parts of Australia, namely NSW, Southern QLD, and Northern VIC, to higher temperatures and lower rainfall.
ABARES’ latest modelling estimates that changes in seasonal conditions over the period 2001 to 2023 (relative to 1951 to 2000) reduced annual average broadacre farm profits by 18%, or around $28,500 per farm (ABARES 2025).
The most recent tip-out of cattle in the New England region, where an estimated 100,000 head were sold, saw an estimated 70% going to slaughter. Many producers in these vulnerable areas have moved away from breeding and are focusing on trading to reduce risk and provide flexibility.
This is one of Australia’s concerns for the next rebuild: will there be enough breeding operations to expand the herd or flock at the required rate, or, with so many producers moving away from breeding, will it take much longer than expected for breeding numbers to rebuild? The same concerns exist in the U.S., which has also seen a very slow start to rebuilding.
The vulnerable nature of NSW and the lack of breeders were evident in the last herd and flock rebuild in 2020/21, when NSW restockers went on a buying spree, purchasing cattle and sheep interstate to make up for the severe tip-out of livestock during the devastating 2018-2019 drought.
This saw large numbers of both cattle and sheep being bought interstate and trucked back into NSW. A large number of sheep came from Western Australia and Victoria. In cattle, QLD was the key supplier. As a result, NSW cattle and sheep numbers increased three-fold in just 12 months. I have described this in the past, saying NSW restockers ‘begged, borrowed or stole’ any interstate sheep and cattle they could to rebuild numbers quickly. This saw unusual breeds such as Brahmans in Southern NSW, which resulted in poor performance, and I believe the same mistakes will not be made again in this rebuild.
In short, there are no southern interstate cattle and sheep available to repeat what NSW did in 2020/2021; there will be some flows from Southern and Central QLD into NSW, but it is unlikely to see large volumes of Northern cattle flowing into NSW. The mistakes of 2020/2021 will not be repeated.
The biggest demand will be for Angus-type cattle, both feeders and heifers, and the interstate numbers are not there (see the outline below on Australia’s rebuild). The other concern will be the high cost of trying to buy back in; many, such as those in the New England region, had hoped to buy cheaper cattle, but this is unlikely, and many producers have ‘missed the bus’.
~Simon Quilty
