Each year, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) release a 10 year outlook showing “ten-year prospects for agricultural commodity and fish markets at national, regional, and global levels (https://www.fao.org/home/en). This is a global view of agriculture markets and includes detail by species and country. This year’s report reminded me that in chaotic times, it’s important to look beyond the current chaos in considering longer term strategies. The report has some interesting info, including:
- “Key trends include rising consumption of animal-source foods, mainly by a growing, more affluent and urbanised population in middle-income countries. Global agricultural and fish production is expected to increase by 14% over the next decade, mainly enabled by productivity growth, particularly in middle-income countries”
- Rising incomes, especially in middle-income economies, are expected to increase the daily per capita caloric intake of meat, dairy, fish, and other animal products by 6% over the next decade.
- By 2034, China’s share of global meat imports is set to decline from 20% in the base period to 16%. A reduced reliance on pig meat imports has led to curbed pork production in major exporters.
- In the short term, nominal ruminant meat (beef) prices, and in particular bovine prices, are projected to rise more significantly as inventories are rebuilt, limiting growth in supply.
- Recent animal disease outbreaks have highlighted the critical need for biosecurity collaboration in the meat industry.
- Total growth in meat consumption is projected at 47.9 million metric tons over the next decade. Global poultry, sheep meat, beef, and pig meat consumption is projected to grow by roughly 21%, 16%, 13% and 5% respectively by 2034. Due to rapid population and income growth, 45% of global consumption growth will be located in upper middle-income countries.
- Productivity gains will contribute to reducing emission intensity and limit the expected increase of direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions to 6%.
Brett Stuart