It was initially thought that Brazil was the only South American country liquidating and moving into a rebuilding phase. However, Argentina and Uruguay are also about to enter or are already in a rebuilding phase, though only in the early stages.
Recent data for Argentina and Uruguay show that cow kills in March and April fell dramatically in both countries, and calves’ prices have increased significantly, pointing to a rebuilding phase potentially commencing in Argentina and about to commence in Uruguay. Given the severity of the drought in 2023 for both countries, it is expected that this rebuild will continue through 2025 and into early 2026 or beyond.
This would potentially put the five major export countries in the world—the US, Australia, Brazil, India (for buffaloes), Argentina, and Uruguay—in a rebuilding stage next year. Tight beef supplies are expected, which will, therefore, strengthen global prices.
– Simon Quilty
